Rainfall is natural climatic phenomena whose prediction is challenging and demanding. Worldwide numerous attempts have been made to predict its behavioral pattern using various techniques. The present study is to find a suitable seasonal forecasting model for forecasting monthly rainfall in Tamilnadu. For this purpose, a dataset containing a total of 136 years (1871 - 2006) monthly rainfall totals of Tamilnadu is obtained from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India and the suitable forecasting model is identified through Box – Jenkins SARIMA modeling.

Key words: Model, Forecasting, seasonality, stationarity, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA model